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In the GCC, economic growth will remain firm overall in 2014 despite gradual decline in oil prices.
The growth will be largely driven by the non-oil sector, but inflation is expected to rise, according to the latest macro economic forecast from Economists and analysts at Moody?s Investors Service.
Moody?s forecast for 2014-15 shows that oil prices will gradually decline but is expected to remain above $100 per barrel pb for Brent crude. ?Hydrocarbon prices will continue to display relative stability, with additional output from countries that are members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Opec offsetting additional demand from emerging markets; while unconventional oil has a high breakeven point that acts as a floor on oil prices,? said Lucio Mauro Vinhas de Souza, Managing Director ? Sovereign Chief Economist of Moody?s said in Dubai yesterday.
The outlook for 2014 points to diminishing fiscal space, with actual and fiscal breakeven oil prices converging. ?In order to avoid rapidly deteriorating fiscal balances, governments will have to start tightening their fiscal stance, particularly those facing higher fiscal breakeven oil prices, such as Bahrain and Oman,? said de Souza.